FUTURE conditions and concerns

Headwaters Mud Creek Watershed

Future Land Use in Headwaters Mud Creek WatershedExhibit 3-6c
Future Land Use in Headwaters Mud Creek Watershed

Future condition and concerns for the planning area portion of the watershed were gathered using a variety of data sources. All resources are referenced in Chapter 7 of this Master Plan. Supporting documentation on water quantity data listed below can be found in Appendix 2 and water quality in Appendix 3.

    • The current default release rates for the post-development 1% annual chance flood are higher than the pre-development 10% annual chance flood discharges so the expected development will likely increase the flows more than previously calculated in the February 2005 Mud Creek Watershed Master Plan. The determinations in the 2005 Mud Creek Watershed Master Plan had assumed the post-development 1% annual chance flood estimates for various sub-watersheds would be reduced to the pre-developed 10% annual chance values.
    • No control on the 50% annual chance flood developed condition discharge has been or is in the Town or County current ordinances. Based on a study of the Williams Creek watershed in Hamilton County, development under the current ordinance allows for substantial increases in the 50% annual chance flood. Not only does the ordinance allow increases in the peak discharge but also in the duration of the flood. The 50% annual chance flood is typically the channel forming discharge for streams. When that flood frequency increases in discharge and duration, additional stream bank erosion typically occurs. Such erosion affects not only the stability of the bank and the safety of anything on the bank but the quality of the water as well.
    • Once the new preliminary FIS maps are finalized, modeling results can be utilized to determine any potential flood impacts from increased runoff, should that happen to occur in the future. 
    • Development will add additional infrastructure which will need repairs or maintenance in order to not adversely impact drainage in the watershed. Maintenance of those portions of the system that are or will be added to the regulated drain or regulated subdivision roles can be accomplished with assessments. Other portions that are under the Town’s jurisdiction can be addressed with stormwater utility funds. The level of funds that will be available may or may not be adequate to cover all of the maintenance required.
    • Impact on roads/bridges– Flow depths over those bridges or bridge approaches that are overtopped could increase by more than 2 inches for the 1% annual chance flood.
    • This watershed is considered to be urbanizing with commercial and industrial development at Exit 10 (Saxony and Clarion Saxony Medical Campus). Based on available future land use data, undeveloped agricultural areas will decrease from 17% to 0.5% to accommodate increases in commercial, industrial, (including the proposed Fishers Medical Technology Corridor along I-69) and residential development. It is anticipated that the large number of golf courses (Hawthorne Golf Course, Ironwood Golf Course, Ironwood Windemere Golf Course, and Ironwood Gold Academy) will remain. Imperviousness within the watershed is estimated to increase from 60% to 77% which remains indicative (typically) of poor water quality.
    • Based on future land use data and increase in commercial and industrial development in this watershed, it is anticipated that water quality in some or all water bodies will likely continue to be impacted by elevated nutrient, bacteria, total suspended solids, and metals loads. As part of this Master Planning effort, water quality samples were collected at Mud Creek and SR 238. Results indicate that nitrogen and E.coli levels already exceed targets while phosphorus levels were low. The biological assessment was good however habitat evaluation ranked very low due to ongoing construction activities.
    • Current Stormwater Management Ordinance requires post- construction BMPs to remove 80% Total Suspended Solids (TSS) from stormwater runoff. It is assumed that other pollutants of concern will be captured to some extent with TSS.

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